RBI MPC meets October 5–7: economists expect first repo rate hike since 2023
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee will announce its decision on 7 October 2026. Most economists polled by Business Standard and Reuters expect a 25 bps hike to 5.50%, as inflation rises and crude prices stay high.
The Reserve Bank of India's six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet from 5 to 7 October 2026 and announce its decision on 7 October. The main question is whether the RBI will raise the repo rate for the first time since February 2023.
Note: No decision has been announced yet. This story sets out what economists expect, based on published polls.
Where rates stand
The repo rate is 5.25%. The RBI has kept it unchanged at its last four policy reviews, after cutting it by a total of 125 basis points in 2025.
What polls say
| Poll | Expectation |
|---|---|
| Business Standard poll | 8 of 10 respondents expect a 25 bps hike to 5.50% |
| Reuters poll (18–28 September) | Nearly 60% of economists (35 of 61) expect a 25 bps hike to 5.50% |
A majority of economists in the Reuters poll also expect another hike in December.
Why a hike is being discussed
- Inflation: Retail (CPI) inflation rose to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July. It has been above the RBI's 4% medium-term target for three months in a row, although it is still within the 2–6% tolerance band. Food inflation was 5.95%.
- Wholesale prices: WPI inflation was 9.92% in August.
- Energy: High crude oil prices linked to the West Asia conflict are adding to inflation risks.
- Global rates: The US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps in September, and the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%.
- Rupee: Reuters reports that the rupee has weakened by about 6% against the dollar this year.
What a hike would mean for you
- Loans: Home and car loans linked to the repo rate through external benchmarks would become more expensive, usually from the next reset date. EMIs or loan tenures could go up.
- Deposits: Banks may raise fixed deposit rates, which would help savers.
Check your loan's benchmark and reset date. An EMI calculator can show how a 0.25 percentage point increase would affect your payments.
Frequently asked questions
When will the RBI announce its decision?
On 7 October 2026, at the end of the 5–7 October MPC meeting.
What is the current repo rate?
5.25%.
Will my home loan EMI rise immediately if the rate is hiked?
For external-benchmark-linked loans, banks pass on changes at the reset date set out in your loan agreement, so check your loan terms.
Sources
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