Monsoon 2026 ends at 87% of normal, weakest since 2015; IMD sees below-normal October rain

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 30 September 2026 that the southwest monsoon ended the season with 759.4 mm of rainfall, about 87% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. That is a shortfall of around 12.6%, making it the weakest monsoon since 2015 and the fourth lowest since 2001.

Month-by-month rainfall (% of LPA)

Regional picture

• East and Northeast India received 1,016.3 mm, which the IMD said was the lowest since 1901 for the region.
• The South Peninsula received 542.0 mm, the fourth lowest since 1901.
• Rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which covers most rain-fed farming areas, was about 94% of LPA, softening the impact on kharif crops.

Outlook for October to December

• October: Below-normal rainfall (under 85% of LPA) is likely over most parts of the country. Some parts of northwest India, the southern peninsula and isolated eastern areas may see normal or above-normal rain.
• Northeast monsoon: For October–December, the IMD expects normal rainfall (88–112% of LPA) over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.
• Temperature: Maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal in most regions.

What farmers can do for rabi

• In areas with a rain deficit, check soil moisture before sowing and consider crops and varieties that need less water.
• Plan pre-sowing irrigation where reservoirs and wells allow.
• Follow district-level agromet advisories from the IMD and your Krishi Vigyan Kendra, which give crop-specific advice based on local forecasts.

Official forecasts and advisories are available on mausam.imd.gov.in.